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Home prices expected to slide another 8%

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The robo-signing controversy is just another issue that the already sluggish housing market didn’t need — but most analysts do not think it will have far-reaching impact.

Nevertheless, the housing market still faces many problems: a weak economy, sluggish hiring, tight mortgage underwriting, falling home prices, and slowing sales.

Then there’s the potentially disastrous number of foreclosures that may occur over the coming years.

“The market faces much bigger problems than the robo-signing issue,” said Mike Larson, a housing market analyst for Weiss Research.

Prime among them are declines in home prices. And while cheaper homes are good for buyers, they also speak to a housing market that won’t stabilize.

Fiserv, a market analytics company, has scaled back its home price projections considerably. In February, it forecast national price gains of about 4% through the end of 2011. The company’s latest prediction is for a 7.1% drop in prices between June 30, 2010 and June 30, 2011.

In fact, after five months of gains, prices in the 20 largest metro areas fell 0.2% in August, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller report.

The good news is, “There’ll be no vicious, self-reinforcing spiral down,” according to Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Analytics.

But, he added, “more home price declines are coming.”

He’s forecasting another 8% drop in home prices through the third quarter of 2011, which will put the total peak-to-trough decline at 34%.

Even after that, in 2012, he sees very little price growth.

Home prices continue to fall because sales aren’t taking off. Without buyers, the market can’t bottom out.

New home sales continue to languish around historic lows, barely exceeding an annual rate of 307,000. Existing home sales did rise to a 4.53 million annualized rate in September, up 10% compared with a month earlier, but are still well below the boom years.

Of course, nobody is buying homes when they can’t find jobs. And still more people can’t hang on to their homes because they’re out of work.

Nearly a million homes are expected to be repossessed this year, and analysts seem to be competing to issue the most dire forecast for future foreclosure numbers.

  • Morgan Stanley reported that about 3.1 million borrowers are seriously delinquent with many expected to lose their homes.
  • Zandi said more than 4 million are in trouble with half of those expected to go to foreclosure.
  • And Laurie Goodman, of Amherst Securities, estimates the number of homes in danger of foreclosure at a whopping 11 million.
  • Real estate analyst Kyle Lundstedt of LPS Applied Analytics said serious delinquencies will continue to spike and will not return even to the current rates — which are already at peak levels — until late 2012 or early 2013.

“The housing market is very fragile,” said Goodman.

However, Zandi sees a few factors that are positive.

These include: Low interest rates; FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all lending to qualified buyers; and an improving job picture.

Zandi is especially confident that the employment picture is about to brighten. Corporate profits have spiked and, historically, hiring follow profits — with a lag of eight to 10 months. That means companies should start hiring workers very soon, Zandi said.

And once Americans start returning to work, they’ll find home prices are very reasonable. Housing is the most affordable it’s been since the pre-boom years. During the boom, Zandi said, prices were overvalued by about 50%; today it’s close to zero.

That has attracted many investors, including foreign buyers. They’ve been scooping up single-family-homes and condos in hard-hit markets like Florida, the Southwest and the Midwest and renting them out.

“The reason they’re in these markets is because they see value,” said Zandi.

But, he added, “If they see the robo-signing issue continue, they could begin to exit the market. If they do, there could be more price declines. That’s one reason why a foreclosure moratorium could be destructive.”

source: money.comTo top of page

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California consumers have nation's highest credit score

California consumers have the nation’s best credit scores, according to a study by CreditKarma.com.

California tied with Massachusetts and New Jersey last month for having the highest credit score in the nation, according to a report released today by CreditKarma, a San Francisco firm that monitors consumer credit.

The three states had an average credit score of 684, ahead of the national average of 666. San Diego County was near the top of the list for major metropolitan areas, with a score of 686, according to a separate study of metro areas released last month.

The worst scores were located in the South. Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Tennessee all had scores below 650. Arkansas was the worst, with an average score of 636.

Nationwide, most states have substantially improved their credit scores over the past year as consumers pay down debt – and as banks continue to be highly selective in making loans and issuing credit cards.

“We suspect this focus on financial responsibility will ultimately lead to credit scores increasing again,” said Ken Lin, the firm’s chief executive.

Since the beginning of the year, seven states have cut their credit card debt by 10 percent or more:

  • Indiana and Tennessee, decreased debt by 10 percent
  • Oregon, 11 percent
  • Nevada – decreased credit card debt by 12 percent
  • Hawaii and Idaho, 13 percent
  • Wisconsin, 28 percent

In California, credit card debt dropped 6.9 percent, from $7,891 per customer to $7,345. In San Diego, it dropped 3.6 percent, from $7,151 to $6,896. source: sign on san diego

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First-time homebuyer index rises slightly

The California Association of Realtors’ First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index released Monday said the percentage of buyers who could afford to purchase an entry-level home in California stood at 66 percent in the third quarter, up from 65 percent in the second quarter and 64 percent in last year’s third-quarter.

CAR also reported improvement in Sacramento County – 82 percent in the third quarter, compared with 80 percent in the second quarter and 78 percent in the third quarter of 2009.

mglover@sacbee.com    Published Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2010

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Refinancing now could be better than waiting for mortgage rates to drop further

Homeowners can start saving sooner by locking in rates that are already at multigenerational lows rather than waiting for a bottom that may not materialize.

November 14, 2010|By Kenneth R. Harney

Reporting from Washington — When the Federal Reserve recently rolled out its plan to pump $600 billion into the credit markets, many homeowners and buyers might have figured that because mortgage interest rates are now likely to fall again, why not postpone the loan application they were contemplating?

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke offered implicit support for that scenario when, in a Washington Post op-ed column Nov. 4, he wrote that as a byproduct of the $600-billion infusion “lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance.”

But wait a minute: Haven’t 30-year fixed mortgage rates been hovering around 4.25%, the lowest level on record since April 1951? Aren’t 15-year mortgages just above 3.6%? How much lower could rates possibly go?

More to the point on refinancings, since we’re already well into a refi boomlet, with lenders reporting 70% to 85% of new mortgage volume going to refinancings, how much more of a market share can the Fed expect?

Housing economists generally don’t anticipate seeing significant direct effects on mortgage rates from the Fed’s move. David Crowe, chief economist of the National Assn. of Home Builders, says the likely effect will be to restrain rate increases that otherwise would occur over the coming year as the economy warms up.

Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist for mortgage giant Freddie Mac, says the $600 billion might only “tweak” rates downward from current levels. “Four and an eighth is far more likely than 4%” on 30-year fixed rate loans, she said in an interview, because the Fed is not buying mortgage-backed securities but rather Treasury bonds.

Which raises the question: Does it make more sense to wait around for a rate bottom that might not materialize, or to lock in rates now at what are multigenerational lows?

Cutts has a personal answer. She recently refinanced her home loan through a mortgage broker to 4.5% fixed for 30 years, and is saving $100 a month on payments. What is she doing with the extra $100? Plowing it back into her new mortgage, reducing principal to shorten the term of the note and paying it off sooner. David Crowe has refinanced two loans in recent months. source: latimes.com

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